Establishing Reasonable Expectations for the First FY 25 CR
My last two columns (here and here) focus on how difficult it will be for Congress to agree—and the President to sign—a Continuing Resolution (CR) to fund the government starting October 1. Somehow, that will have to happen because the alternative is a government shutdown that nearly all Members of Congress want to avoid.
A baseline for the CR is straightforward: extend all programs at their FY 24 levels + temporarily extend expiring programs (e.g. Farm Bill) + adopt (or not) the OMB/White House list of anomalies that would occur under a CR (e.g. adjust for programs that would normally spend most of their annual funding in Q1). Then set a time for the CR to expire.
That would be easy to adopt, and Members of Congress could go home early to campaign for themselves and/or other candidates. Yet, there is no possibility it will happen that way.*
The status quo (a baseline CR) is almost certain to be what is passed eventually. But that will only occur after things get really messy and the threat of a shutdown starts to become real.
The forthcoming election is the reason. There will be a new President sworn in on January 20, 2025. The Senate and House are both narrowly divided, and majority parties may be different when they are sworn in on January 3, 2025. Priorities will be different depending on how power is divided next year.
So…who and what will contribute to the delays in September?
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson. He has such a narrow Republican majority that he often has to choose between: 1/ reflecting the views of his party’s conservative wing (who usually vote against CR’s and whose priorities cannot pass the Senate), and 2/ going straight to a deal with the House Democrats.
Out of political necessity, the Speaker starts with his conservative caucus, even if it inevitably results in delays that could have been avoided.
The SAVE Act. Speaker Johnson has already said this will be a policy rider to the House CR . The bill requires proof of citizenship in order to register to vote in a federal election. It is already illegal for non-citizens to vote in federal elections and there is no evidence that this is a problem. However, it lets Republicans accuse Democrats of encouraging voter fraud. In turn, Democrats can accuse Republicans of promoting voter suppression.
Defining the Status Quo. Reportedly, the House CR will not continue FY 24 funding levels that were part of a side-deal during budget negotiations last year. Democrats will oppose this on the grounds that a CR should do what it says: extend all FY 24 program levels.
End Date for the First CR. Traditionally, the first CR in an election year ends sometime in November or December after the election. Members of Congress can then try to reach an agreement on funding bills but can always pass another CR that extends into the new year/new Congress. Some Members, primarily House Republicans, want the CR to extend until next year when they believe Trump will be President and they will have larger majorities that will help them cut funding and adopt policy riders.
*Over the last several days, some political reporters have described the CR situation as “the House passes a messaging bill, the Senate then sends a clean CR extension back to the House, where it is adopted.” I hope this is right, but I very much doubt it will be that simple.
Editorial Note:
The Analysis and Commentary section is written by Steven Grossman, Executive Director of the Alliance for a Stronger FDA.