5 Things to Know About the FY 24 Appropriations Endgame
One House member is quoted as saying: FY 24 Appropriations are either “close to reaching a deal” or “it's about to blow up." To hear more about the situation, with updates, sign up for the Alliance’s February 28, 2 p.m. ET webinar on FDA Funding and the Appropriations Process. Register here.
With such a broad range of possible outcomes, here are five things to know about the FY 24 appropriations endgame, as of COB, February 22, 2024.
Time is running out. The Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA), signed last June, was intended to resolve the then-immediate budget ceiling default threat and settle total spending levels for FY 24 and FY 25. Contrary to expectations, the deal has not led to a peaceful appropriations process for those two fiscal years. FY 24 is already five months old and the government is still being funded by the third Continuing Resolution.
The appetite for more Continuing Resolutions is non-existent, funding levels are unclear in some cases, policy riders are unresolved, and there is limited time next week when the House and Senate are both in session to move funding bills. It is possible a short-term CR might be approved if it merely moved the March 1 deadline to March 8 (concurrent with the rest of the government).
There is no path to completion that isn’t encumbered by seemingly unsolvable political and procedural problems. The House Republican caucus is divided into multiple factions–there is no straightforward path in the House. Indeed, it may take a discharge petition (bypassing the Rules Committee) to even get funding bills to be considered.
The Senate should have more than 60 votes for the bipartisan appropriations positions it has taken previously. However, nothing can be moved quickly in the Senate if one or more Members want to slow the process down. For next week’s endgame, a shutdown would be likely–even if for a few days–if a Senator decided to object to expedited floor procedures.
A shutdown (of unknown duration) is possible. Increasingly, we are hearing predictions that a short shutdown is possible. We already know that it will be hard for the House and Senate to move fast enough to pass funding legislation before March 1. Procedural and other blocks could occur in either body.
If they are close to agreement or the politics demand a symbolic shutdown, then little of significance is lost if the government is “shutdown” for 48 hours over a weekend. The first concrete effect comes about 3 or 4 a.m. Monday morning when OPM needs to announce which federal workers should come to work.
FDA still faces a range of outcomes from a modest increase to a devastating cut. Because the 302(b) subcommittee allocations have been set but funding levels for individual bills have not been publicly announced, it is impossible to know what monies will be available in the Ag/FDA appropriations bill to fund discretionary programs. The best guess is somewhere between a small increase and a small decrease in FDA funding. However, if a full-year CR is passed, then FDA could face cuts in the range of $300 million.
Serious action on FY 25 is unlikely before the Fall 2024 election. While hearings may be held and mark-ups called, both parties will be maneuvering to have majorities in the House and the Senate in the new Congress. Once that’s known (post Election Day), it may be possible to negotiate funding packages in December.
All of this will be discussed in greater detail on February 28, 2 p.m. ET at an Alliance webinar on FDA Funding and the Appropriations Process. Register here.
Editorial Note:
The Analysis and Commentary section is written by Steven Grossman, Executive Director of the Alliance for a Stronger FDA.