Lots to Learn from a Near-Shutdown Experience
Q: Were you surprised at the last-minute adoption of a seven-week CR at the current FY 23 funding level?
A: I went to bed Friday night thinking a shutdown was inevitable. However, I had written that “it is in the nature of these kinds of disagreements that the resolution and timing are opaque until they happen. It is possible that a shutdown can be avoided at the last moment.” And so it was.
Q: Are we likely to have a shutdown in November?
A: We are likely to be buffeted by moments of hope and moments of despair over the remaining six weeks of the Continuing Resolution. Stakeholders (as well as FDA staff) should proceed to plan their work as if a shutdown will occur at midnight on November 17. This is not a prediction, just a statement of caution.
Q: Given a shutdown is still possible, do you think that FDA will change their shutdown plans from what they had in place last week?
A: What was released was an FY 24 shutdown plan, not a “first week in October” plan. Changes are possible, maybe even likely, but they will be situational rather than any change in the fundamentals. The FY 24 shutdown plan is thoroughly covered in the Alliance’s FDA Shutdown Tool Kit, as updated on September 29.
Q: Does the ouster of House Speaker McCarthy increase the probability of a November shutdown?
A: Speaker McCarthy’s ouster was due to fundamental disagreements among factions of the House Republican caucus on total spending, policy riders, and negotiating tactics.
If the election of a new Speaker resolves or lessens the disagreements, then the appropriations process can resume. However, the eventual task of reconciling positions with the Senate will still be daunting.
If the election reinforces or even magnifies the disagreements, it is hard to see how a new Republican Speaker will be in any better position to resolve conflicts in the Republican caucus than his three immediate predecessors (Kevin McCarthy, Paul Ryan, and John Boehner).
Worth noting: some news stories are suggesting that the interim Speaker, Patrick McHenry, may be in that position for a while because there will be an extended battle for Speaker. If that proves the case, another CR will be needed on November 17 or there will be a shutdown.
Q: What are the prospects for passage of the House Ag/FDA funding bill?
A: After passing out of committee in June, the Ag/FDA funding bill has been readied for floor action three times, pulled back twice, and rejected on September 28 by a vote of 191-237. In a sense, it is a microcosm of disagreements within the Republican caucus.
Funding disagreements: the Committee-passed version funded programs at their FY 23 funding levels. The Chairman’s amendment would have set most programs, including FDA, at 14.15% less than the FY 23 levels.
This creates problems for Republicans representing districts that benefit from agricultural and feeding programs. Further, there is no evidence whatsoever of Republican support for shrinking the FDA by nearly $500 million.
Policy riders: all the House Republican funding bills contain problematic policy riders. The Ag/FDA bill contains a provision reversing FDA actions and limiting access to the abortion drug mifepristone. A number of moderate Republicans, notably those from districts that voted for President Biden, view this as a political liability for their re-election campaigns.
Q: What would you like to tell lawmakers about the threat of a shutdown last week and in November?
A: Bravo (to Congress) for a crisis averted. As we move toward November 17, please remember that brinkmanship has a cost, even if a shutdown doesn’t occur. For FDA as well as the entire federal workforce, the best and most productive workplaces are ones that provide stability and support for their employees.
We don’t know the impact of last week’s near-shutdown on employee morale, retention, and recruitment at FDA. However, it could not have been positive.
Editorial Note:
The Analysis and Commentary section is written by Steven Grossman, Executive Director of the Alliance for a Stronger FDA.