We Got the FY 25 CR Story Right, What’s Next?
All the CR “sturm und drang” (“storm and stress”) is over now. The House and Senate finally negotiated a serious “standstill agreement,” rushed the process through both bodies, and adjourned on Wednesday to go home to campaign. That was two days earlier than planned.
As we predicted in late July (Hurry Up and Wait = Focus Shifts to CR in September) and explored in subsequent columns here, here, here, and here, the expected outcome (a relatively clean CR) became the actual outcome (a relatively clean CR).
If they had skipped the political drama, they probably could have gone home 10 days earlier. Why they did not is explained in last week’s column, Remembrance of October 1’s Past.
The “what comes next” process is largely baked in now. The “what comes next” substance is wholly dependent on what happens on Election Day.
The CR expires December 20, 2024, which is a realistic but somewhat curious choice. No Member of Congress wants to be in DC during Christmas week, which is what could occur if there is a stand-off when the CR expires. The Senate had initially been focused on December 13, presumably hoping that an earlier date might provide impetus for an earlier resolution that would not threaten Christmas.
The House and Senate are expected to come back into session on November 12 for eight days (two weeks). Then presumably, they will return the week after Thanksgiving and have three weeks before the CR expires.
During those five weeks, the Congress will work toward: 1/ passage of all 12 appropriations bills (separately or in mini-buses) at funding levels that President Biden will agree to and sign; or 2/ a Continuing Resolution that goes into the new Congress (with a date that can be mid-January or might stretch out to March 31).
A mix of the two is theoretically possible–some of the appropriations bills are enacted and others are covered by the Continuing Resolution. As a practical political matter that would mean defense and maybe veterans funding would be adopted ahead of domestic programs.
As we have described (The Pentagon is FDA’s Ally, Really!), FDA benefits from its funding being set at the same time as the Department of Defense. Fortunately, Democrats would never agree to that and President Biden would never sign the bills.
Not quite a footnote: a third outcome is that Congress cannot agree on anything and the government shuts down. Since many federal workers schedule leave that week, a shutdown would be less costly and disruptive than any other week of the year. It is not hard to imagine the House Freedom Caucus (especially if encouraged by an incoming President Trump) deciding that a shutdown is a great opportunity to leverage the Democrats. Needless to say a government shutdown (even Christmas week) is always the worst scenario for FDA.
While incredibly disruptive and pointless, a shutdown doesn’t actually change the eventual outcomes: either funding bills pass or a CR extends funding until the new Congress that starts in January.
As described in this column, the “what comes next” process is largely baked in now.
A future column will explore the “what comes next” substance, which is wholly dependent on what happens on Election Day.
Editorial Note:
The Analysis and Commentary section is written by Steven Grossman, Executive Director of the Alliance for a Stronger FDA.