Uncertainty, As Well As Risk to FDA in FY24 Appropriations Process
Last week’s Analysis and Commentary (here) took a hard look at how the FY 24 appropriations process had turned into a stalemate.
In the intervening week, nothing has changed and we are a week closer to the expiration of the Continuing Resolution on January 19. Further, the House has adjourned for the year and will be back on January 9. The Senate is in DC, but focused on the potential foreign aid/border policy supplemental appropriations bill. Once adjourned, they will be back on January 8.
Prerequisites for a Budget Deal
Politico’s story (here) about the rapidly approaching CR deadline is aptly called “The real shutdown deadline is closer than it appears.” The article defines the threshold for progress:
“Before lawmakers can debate the nitty gritty of specific programs’ funding and sticky policy issues…..the two parties need to agree on:
An overall total for defense funding
Another total for non-defense funding
Ground rules for debating policy add-ons
How “emergency” spending gets counted"
That’s a lot to resolve, especially with the holidays and no evidence of progress to date.
What Must End, Will End. But When and How?
My December 1 column (here) had this question in its title. Two weeks later, "when" and "how" are still impossible to predict. Speaker Johnson has said that he will not agree to more short-term continuing resolutions, setting up a new shutdown threat.
The Speaker's fall back is a date-specific full-year CR. The Senate is unlikely to agree to that. It is also an untested assumption that 217 House Republicans would vote in favor of a full-year CR.
Unless something changes, Speaker Johnson will have the exact same problem on January 19 as he did on November 17 and as Speaker McCarthy had on September 30. If he doesn’t want to shut the government down, he will have to rely on Democratic votes. That being the case, he cannot deliver on the funding cuts and policy riders favored by the largest bloc of Republicans in the House.
What is the Range of Outcomes for FDA’s FY 24 Funding?
If the Senate position (topline and major details) prevails, then FDA will probably receive level funding in FY 24 with a range of +/- $35 million (+/- 1%).
This is the most likely outcome. At this point in the process, it is also the best case.
However, that is not the only possible outcome. The House Ag/FDA spending bill that was defeated on the House floor incorporated across-the-board cuts of about 14%. That would place FDA funding at about $3 billion, just a bit shy of a $500 million cut from the FY 23 levels.
House Speaker Johnson’s proposal for a “date-change, full-year CR” would also be a problem. It has been asserted that FDA (and hundreds of other federal agencies) might face as much as a 9.4% cut. For FDA, that would be about a $300 million cut.
Concluding Thought
FDA and its stakeholders should be very concerned about the outcome of the current budget negotiations. While not the most likely outcome, large cuts might occur. If so, they will be across-the-board cuts, rather than any assessment of FDA’s resource needs or the value to the American people.
Editorial Note:
The Analysis and Commentary section is written by Steven Grossman, Executive Director of the Alliance for a Stronger FDA.