We Got the FY 25 CR Story Right, What’s Next? Part 2

The current FY  25 Continuing Resolution (CR) is essentially a “clean stand-still agreement” that extends for 81 days until December 20, 2024.  

We commented last week about the “sturm und drang” (“storm and stress”) Congress experienced in the lead-up to October 1. Expect that to recur once Congress returns to D.C. after the election. 

The “what comes next process” is largely baked in now and we covered that in last week’s Analysis and Commentary (here).

The “what comes next substance” is wholly dependent on what happens on Election Day. 

Note: This analysis only addresses consequences for the post-election session based on the 2024 elections. Newly-elected members will not be part of what happens in the lame duck although they could influence it. 

TRUMP WINS!

Comment A: House Republicans will probably renew their effort to have the CR extended into the new year where they will have total control. Democrats will be trying to get a deal that covers all of 2025 and blunts whatever large cutbacks are otherwise coming in a Republican Congress and a Trump presidency. The Democrat majority Senate will still need 60 votes to pass legislation by December 20.

Comment B: Given the Democrats tenuous hold on the Senate, this is an unlikely scenario. Congressional Republicans will feel they benefit from delay into 2025.  Senate Democrats will still want a deal before Trump takes office. 

Comment C: House Democrats should continue to want a deal, even though they are ascendent in 2025. Equally plausible, they may prefer to delay until 2025 because Trump and Senate Republicans combined might still be viewed as “ever so slightly easier” to negotiate with than the House Freedom Caucus, whose leverage is gone in a Democrat-run House.  

Comment D: This is a highly unlikely scenario. Republicans might be willing to risk a government shutdown to get any concessions they can while they still have some power in Congress. Possible, but less likely, they would prefer to wait for Trump.

HARRIS WINS!

Comment A: Republicans might be willing to risk a government shutdown to get any concessions they can while they still have some power in Congress. Otherwise, they are left plotting to gain leverage, where it isn’t apparent where it would come from.

Comment B: With both Houses having new majorities next year, there may be sentiment to clear the decks for a new Congress and not wait to see what the new dynamics will be. This would be the scenario that is most likely to end with: each side gives a little, so that funding bills are adopted during the post-election session.

Comment C: This is similar to the status quo. It is unlikely that Harris would win, the Democrats hold the Senate, and Democrats can’t bring home a House majority. Were that to occur, expect stalemate between House Republicans and Senate Democrats, possibly past December 20. 

Comment D: Under this scenario, Republicans would probably insist on extending the CR into 2025. While Senate Democrats would have less leverage to slow it down or reject it, 60 votes are still needed to pass legislation before December 20. 

Before anyone gets too excited, please remember that this is a thought exercise, not a prediction. The intent is to illustrate the variable outcomes that hinge on the election outcome.

Editorial Note:
The Analysis and Commentary section is written by Steven Grossman, Executive Director of the Alliance for a Stronger FDA.